GMT Correlation is Wrong, Luuk Buursen's Correlation is Right! (Dresden Codex Eclipse Table)


The Dresden Codex is one of four remaining old books of the Mayas from the pre-Columbian period. Pages 51 until 58 contain an eclipse table; a method to calculate dates on which an eclipse could occur.

Solar eclipses occur during a new moon, when the moon is between our planet earth and the sun; lunar eclipses occur during a full moon, when our planet earth is between the moon and the sun. Eclipses can only occur if the moon is near a node of its orbit on the ecliptic. The moon's orbit crosses the ecliptic twice and there is a good chance that an eclipse will occur at a full or new moon nearest this time. This will usually be six lunar months, 177 days, after the first eclipse. Several eclipses may follow at 177 day intervals, but the moon is further from the node at each repetition, and eventually strays too far from the node for an eclipse to occur. At the time of the last eclipse in a series, the closest new or full moon to the node may arrive after five lunar months, 148 days. 

The most prominent of the eclipse pages in the Dresden Codex is a sequence of numbers: repeating 177 and sometimes 148. Above the sequence a cumulative total is recorded. Adding the number at the base of the column (177 or 148) to the total above, gives the total recorded number above the next column. Occasionally 178 is added to produce the total, even though the number at the bottom is 177. This appears to be intended to correct the cumulative count to take the rounding error inherent in the 177 and 148 day approximations into account: 6 lunar months = 177.18 days and 5 lunar months = 147.65 days.

The base date in the Dresden Codex, to start from, is given on page 52a: the second column date in black: 9.16.4.10.8  12 Lamat.
But here the problem arises: what is the corresponding date of our Gregorian calendar?


The Mayas were great astronomers and made remarkably accurate measurements, as you can see in the table below. So the solar eclipse dates need to very accurate too: they need to have occurred on the same date ± 12 hours for time differences.

Periods
Modern (days)
Recorded by  Maya 
Maya (days)
Lunar (synodic) month
29.53059 
405 lunations = 46 Tzolk'ins 
(260 x 46 = 11,960 days)
29.53086 
Synodic period of Venus
583.93
301 periods = 676 Tzolk'ins
( 260 x 676  = 175,760 days)
583.92027 
Synodic period of Mars
779.94
1 period = 3 Tzolk'ins
(3 x 260 = 780 days)
780
Solar (tropical) year
365.24198
1507 tropical years = 1508 Haabs
(365 x 1508 days)
365.242

Currently the GMT correlation (584283) is the accepted method by Maya specialists to convert Maya Long Count days into Gregorian dates. But when using the GMT method, on only 8 of the 70 possible eclipse dates an eclipse actually occurred, within a timeframe of ± 12 hours (light green in table below). On 14 dates (± 12 hours) a new moon occurred,so this was a solar eclipse warning station (dark green). 

48 times a solar eclipse or new moon did not occur on the date ± 12 hours (red in table below) (using the 584283 correlation method! the 584285 correlation is more wrong). If you count the warning stations, the hitrate of the GMT is only 31.43%!

See the table below using the GMT correlation:


Count from last eclipse station 
Cumulative total 
Tzolk'in day
Long Count date
Gregorian date
('85 correlation)
(’83 correlation)
Solar eclipse?
#
(0)
(0)
12 Lamat
9.16.4.10.8
12/11/755
10 Nov 755
No
New moon  8 Nov
0
177
177
7 Chicchan
9.16.5.1.5
(calculated)
7/5/756
5 May 756
0756 May 04  02:54:59 
1
177
354
2 Ik
9.16.5.10.2(calculated)
31/10/756
29 Oct 756
0756 Oct 28  09:53:47
2
148 
502
7 Ok
9.16.5.17.10(calculated)
28/3/757
26 Mar 757
No
New moon 24 March
3
177
679
2 Manik
9.16.6.8.7(calculated)
21/9/757
19 Sep 757
No
New moon 
18 Sep 13:03
4
177
856
10 Kan
9.16.6.17.4(calculated)
17/3/758
15 mar 758
No
New moon 
14 March 13:29
5
177
1033
5 Imix
9.16.7.8.1(calculated)
10/9/758
8 Sep 758
No
New moon 7 Sep 13:05
6
177 (178)
1211
1 Kawak
9.16.7.16.19(calculated)
7/3/759
5 Mar 759
0759 Mar 03  21:42:22
7
177
1388
9 Kib
9.16.8.7.16(calculated)
31/8/759
29 Aug 759
No
New moon 27 Aug
8
177
1565
4 Ben
9.16.8.16.13(calculated)
24/2/760
22 Feb 760
0760 Feb 21 13:05:15
9
177
1742
12 Ok
9.16.9.7.10(calculated)
19/8/760
17 Aug 760
0760 Aug 15  15:46:22
10
177
1919
7 Manik
9.16.9.16.7(calculated)
12/2/761
10 Feb 761
0761 Feb 09 23:08:52
11
177
2096
2 Kan
9.16.10.7.4(calculated)
8/8/761
6 Aug 761
0761 Aug 05  04:19:51
12
148
2244
7 Eb
9.16.10.14.12(calculated)
3/1/762
1 Jan 762
No
New moon 31 Dec 13:23
13
177 (178)
2422
3 Ok
9.16.11.5.10(calculated)
30/6/762
28 June 762
No
New moon 26 June
14
177
2599
11 Manik
9.16.11.14.7(calculated)
24/12/762
22 Dec 762
No
New moon 20 Dec
15
177
2776
6 Kan
9.16.12.5.4(calculated)
19/6/763
17 Jun 763
0763 Jun 16  04:27:29
16
177
2953
1 Imix
9.16.12.14.1(calculated)
13/12/763
11 Dec 763
0763 Dec 09  14:25:24
17
177
3130
7(9)Etz'nab
9.16.13.4.18(calculated)
7/6/764
5 Jun 764
0764 Jun 04  12:12:18
18
148
3278
1 Kimi
9.16.13.12.6(calculated)
2/11/764
31 Oct 764
No
New moon 29 Oct
19
177
3455
9 Ak'bal
9.16.14.3.3(calculated)
28/4/765
26 Apr 765
No
New moon 24 April
20
177
3632
4 Ahaw
9.16.14.12.0(calculated)
22/10/765
20 Oct 765
No
New moon 19 Oct 12:51
21
177
3809
12 Kaban
9.16.15.2.17(calculated)
17/4/766
15 Apr 766
No
New moon 14 Apr 13:17
22
177 (178)
3987
8 Men
9.16.15.11.15(calculated)
12/10/766
10 Oct 766
No
New moon 8 Oct
23
177
4164
3 Eb
9.16.16.2.12(calculated)
7/4/767
5 Apr 767
0767 Apr 03  13:57:12
24
177
4341
11 Muluk
9.16.16.11.9(calculated)
1/10/767
29 Sep 767
0767 Sep 27  22:34:38
25
177 (148)
4489
3 Kaban
9.16.17.0.17(calculated)
26/2/768
24 Feb 768
No
New moon 22 Feb
26
177
4666
11 Ix
9.16.17.9.14(calculated)
21/8/768
19 Aug 768
No
New moon 17 Aug
27
177
4843
6 Chuwan
9.16.18.0.11(calculated)
14/2/769
12 Feb 769
No
New moon 11 Feb 13:18
28
177 (178)
5021
2 Muluk
9.16.18.9.9(calculated)
11/8/769
9 Aug 769
No
New moon 6 Aug
29
177
5198
10 Kimi
9.16.19.0.6(calculated)
4/2/770
2 Feb 770
No
New moon 31 Jan
30
177
5375
5 Ak'bal
9.16.19.9.3(calculated)
31/7/770
29 July 770
0770 Jul 27  04:12
31
177
5552
13 Ahaw
9.17.0.0.0(calculated)
24/1/771
22 Jan 771
0771 Jan 20  20:20:40
32
177
5729
8 Kaban
9.17.0.8.17(calculated)
20/7/771
18 July 771
0771 Jul 16  21:18:25
33
177
5906
3 Ix
9.17.0.17.14(calculated)
13/1/772
11 Jan 772
0772 Jan 09  20:01:18
34
177
6083
11 Chuwan
9.17.1.8.11(calculated)
8/7/772
6 July 772
0772 Jul 05  12:35:35
35
148
6231
3 Kawak
9.17.1.15.19(calculated)
3/12/772
1 Dec 772
No
New moon 29 Nov
36
177 (178)
6409
12 Kaban
9.17.2.6.17(calculated)
30/5/773
28 May 773
No
New moon 26 May
37
177
6586
7 Ix
9.17.2.15.14(calculated)
23/11/773
21 Nov 773
No
New moon 19 Nov
38
177
6763
2 Chuwan
9.17.3.6.11(calculated)
19/5/774
17 May 774
0774 May 15  09:22:59
39
177
6940
10 Lamat
9.17.3.15.8(calculated)
12/11/774
10 Nov 774
0774 Nov 08  18:33:10
40
177
7117
5 Chicchan
9.17.4.6.5(calculated)
8/5/775
6 May 775
0775 May 04  12:19:13 
41
148
7265
10 Ben
9.17.4.13.13(calculated)
3/10/775
1 Oct 775
No
New moon 29 Sep
42
177
7442
5 Ok
9.17.5.4.10(calculated)
28/3/776
26 Mar 776
No
New moon 24 Mar
43
177
7619
13 Manik
9.17.5.13.7(calculated)
21/9/776
19 Sep 776
No
New moon 17 Sep
44
177
7796
8 Kan
9.17.6.4.4(calculated)
17/3/777
15 March 777
0777 Mar 14  05:52:01
45
177
7973
3 Imix
9.17.6.13.1(calculated)
10/9/777
8 Sep 777
No
New moon 6 Sep
46
177
8150
11 Etz'nab
9.17.7.3.18(calculated)
6/3/778
4 March 778
0778 Mar 03  21:12:24
47
177
8327
6 Men
9.17.7.12.15(calculated)
30/8/778
28 Aug 778
0778 Aug 26  23:14:42
48
148
8475
11 Ak'bal
9.17.8.2.3(calculated)
25/1/779
23 Jan 779
No
New moon 22 Jan
13:16
49
177
8652
6 Ahaw
9.17.8.11.0(calculated)
21/7/779
19 July 779
No
New moon 18 July
13:30
50
177
8829
1 Kaban
9.17.9.1.17(calculated)
14/1/780
12 Jan 780
No
New moon 11 Jan
13:12
51
177 (178)
9007
10 Men
9.17.9.10.15(calculated)
10/7/780
8 July 780
No
New moon 6 July
52
177
9184
 Eb
9.17.10.1.12(calculated)
3/1/781
1 Jan 781
No
New moon 30 Dec
53
177
9361
13 Muluk
9.17.10.10.9(calculated)
29/6/781
27 June 781
Jun 26  11:30:45
54
177
9538
8 Kimi
9.17.11.1.6(calculated)
23/12/781
21 Dec 781
Dec 19  23:04:25 
55
177
9715
3 Ak'bal
9.17.11.10.3(calculated)
18/6/782
16 June 782
Jun 15  18:45:24
56
177
9892
11 Ahaw
9.17.12.1.0(calculated)
12/12/782
10 Dec 782
Dec 09  12:47:43
57
148
10040
3 Lamat
9.17.12.8.8(calculated)
9/5/783
7 May 783
No
New moon 6 May
13:07
58
177
10217
11 Chicchan
9.17.12.17.5(calculated)
2/11/783
31 Oct 783
No
New moon 30 Oct
12:31
59
177 (178)
10395
7 Ak'bal
9.17.13.8.3(calculated)
28/4/784
26 April 784
No
New moon 24 April
60
177
10572
2 Ahaw
9.17.13.17.0(calculated)
22/10/784
20 Oct 784
No
New moon 19 Oct
13:02
61
177
10749
10 Kaban
9.17.14.7.17(calculated)
17/4/785
15 April 785
0785 Apr 13  21:35:47
62
177
10926
5 Ix
9.17.14.16.14(calculated)
11/10/785
9 Oct 785
0785 Oct 08  06:06:06 
63
177
11103
13 Chuwan
9.17.15.7.11(calculated)
6/4/786
4 April 786
0786 Apr 03  13:51:28 
64
148
11251
5 Kawak
9.17.15.14.19(calculated)
1/9/786
30 Aug 786
No
New moon 28 Aug
65
177
11428
13 Kib
9.17.16.5.16(calculated)
25/2/787
23 Feb 787
No
New moon 22 Feb
12:58
66
177
11605
8 Ben
9.17.16.14.13(calculated)
21/8/787
19 Aug 787
No
New moon 17 Aug
67
177
11782
3 Ok
9.17.17.5.10(calculated)
14/2/788
12 Feb 788
No
New moon 12 Feb
68
177 
11959
11 Manik
9.17.17.14.7(calculated)
9/8/788
7 Aug 788
0788 Aug 06  11:52:52
69


Luuk Buursen created an alternative correlation method and sent a document to a group of Maya specialists. He is still waiting for responses, but from two specialists he received negative answers. 

On 66 exact days a solar eclipse occurred (light green in the table below with a marge of ±12 hours), on 1 date a solar eclipse occurred 20 hours and 20 minutes later (red in the table below). On 3 dates a solar eclipse did not occur, but a new moon occurred, so this was a solar eclipse warning station (dark green). If you count the warning stations, the hit rate of Luuk's correlation is 98.57%, Luuk Buursen is only wrong on 1 date out of 70!

See the table below using Luuk's correlation:


count from last eclipse station 
Cumulative total 
Tzolk'in day
Long Count
Gregorian date
('85 correlation)
(’83 correlation)
Gregorian date
Luuk’s correlation
Solar Eclipse ?
#
(0)
(0)
12 Lamat
9.16.4.10.8
12/11/755
10 Nov 755
24/25 May 765
0765 May 24  13:41:46
0
177
177
7 Chicchan
9.16.5.1.5
7/5/756
5 May 756
17/18 Nov 765
0765 Nov 17  19:39:02
1
177
354
2 Ik
9.16.5.10.2
31/10/756
29 Oct 756
13/14 May 766
0766 May 13  15:18:08
2
148 
502
7 Oc
9.16.5.17.10
28/3/757
26 Mar 757
8/9 Oct 766
No
New moon 8 Oct
3
177
679
2 Manik
9.16.6.8.7
21/9/757
19 Sep 757
3/4 April 767
0767 Apr 03  13:57:12
4
177
856
10 Kan
9.16.6.17.4
17/3/758
15 mar 758
27/28 Sep 767
0767 Sep 27  22:34:38
5
177
1033
5 Imix
9.16.7.8.1
10/9/758
22/23 Mar 768
0768 Mar 23  05:55:58
6
177 (178)
1211
1 Kawak
9.16.7.16.19
7/3/759
5 Mar 759
16/17 Sep 768
0768 Sep 15  22:12:37
7
177
1388
9 Kib
9.16.8.7.16
31/8/759
29 Aug 759
12/13 Mar 769
0769 Mar 12  22:09:04
8
177
1565
4 Ben
9.16.8.16.13
24/2/760
22 Feb 760
5/6 Sep 769
0769 Sep 05  01:40:10
9
177
1742
12 Ok
9.16.9.7.10
19/8/760
17 Aug 760
1/2 Mar 770
0770 Mar 02  09:57:41
10
177
1919
7 Manik
9.16.9.16.7
12/2/761
10 Feb 761
25/26 Aug 770
0770 Aug 25  12:34:31
11
177
2096
2 Kan
9.16.10.7.4
8/8/761
6 Aug 761
18/19 Feb 771
0771 Jan 20  20:20:40
12
148
2244
7 Eb
9.16.10.14.12
3/1/762
1 Jan 762
16/17 July 771
0771 Jul 16  21:18:25
13
177 (178)
2422
3 Ok
9.16.11.5.10
30/6/762
28 June 762
10/11 Jan 772
0772 Jan 09  20:01:18
14
177
2599
11 Manik
9.16.11.14.7
24/12/762
22 Dec 762
5/6 Jul 772
0772 Jul 05  12:35:35
15
177
2776
6 Kan
9.16.12.5.4
19/6/763
17 Jun 763
29/30 Dec 772
0772 Dec 29  01:29:11
16
177
2953
1 Imix
9.16.12.14.1
13/12/763
11 Dec 763
25/26 June 773
0773 Jun 24  21:52:22
17
177
3130
7(9)Etz'nab
9.16.13.4.18
7/6/764
5 Jun 764
18/19 Dec 773
0773 Dec 18  13:51:01
18
148
3278
1 Kimi
9.16.13.12.6
2/11/764
31 Oct 764
15/16 May 774
0774 May 15  09:22:59
19
177
3455
9 Ak'bal
9.16.14.3.3
28/4/765
26 Apr 765
8/9 Nov 774
0774 Nov 08  18:33:10
20
177
3632
4 Ahaw
9.16.14.12.0
22/10/765
20 Oct 765
4/5 May 775
0775 May 04  12:19:13
21
177
3809
12 Kaban
9.16.15.2.17
17/4/766
15 Apr 766
28/29 Oct 775
0775 Oct 29  06:19:41
22
177 (178)
3987
8 Men
9.16.15.11.15
12/10/766
10 Oct 766
23/24 April 776
0776 Apr 22  22:13:29
23
177
4164
3 Eb
9.16.16.2.12
7/4/767
5 Apr 767
17/18 Oct 776
0776 Oct 17  11:03:26
24
177
4341
11 Muluk
9.16.16.11.9
1/10/767
29 Sep 767
12/13 April 777
0777 Apr 12  13:44:14
25
177 (148)
4489
3 Kaban
9.16.17.0.17
26/2/768
24 Feb 768
7/8 Sep 777
No
New moon 6 Sep
12:52
26
177
4666
11 Ix
9.16.17.9.14
21/8/768 
19 Aug 768
3/4 Mar 778
0778 Mar 03  21:12:24
27
177
4843
6 Chuwan
9.16.18.0.11
14/2/769
12 Feb 769
27/28 Aug 778
0778 Aug 26  23:14:42
28
177 (178)
5021
2 Muluk
9.16.18.9.9
11/8/769
9 Aug 769
21/22 Feb 779
0779 Feb 21  07:00:09
29
177
5198
10 Kimi
9.16.19.0.6
4/2/770
2 Feb 770
17/18 Aug 779
0779 Aug 16  12:02:26
30
177
5375
5 Ak'bal
9.16.19.9.3
31/7/770
29 July 770
10/11 Feb 780
0780 Feb 10  09:25:34
31
177
5552
13 Ahaw
9.17.0.0.0
24/1/771
22 Jan 771
5/6 Aug 780
0780 Aug 05  04:43:27
32
177
5729
8 Kaban
9.17.0.8.17
20/7/771
18 July 771
29/30 Jan 781
0781 Jan 29  08:50:22
33
177
5906
3 Ix
9.17.0.17.14
13/1/772
11 Jan 772
25/26 July 781
0781 Jul 25  20:37:53
34
177
6083
11 Chuwan
9.17.1.8.11
8/7/772
6 July 772
18/19 Jan 782
No
New moon 18 Jan
35
148
6231
3 Kawak
9.17.1.15.19
3/12/772
1 Dec 772
15/16 June 782
0782 Jun 15  18:45:24
36
177 (178)
6409
12 Kaban
9.17.2.6.17
30/5/773
28 May 773
10/11 Dec 782
0782 Dec 09  12:47:43
37
177
6586
7 Ix
9.17.2.15.14
23/11/773
21 Nov 773
5/6 June 783
0783 Jun 04  20:03:18
38
177
6763
2 Chuwan
9.17.3.6.11
19/5/774
17 May 774
29/30 Nov 783
0783 Nov 29  04:28:09
39
177
6940
10 Lamat
9.17.3.15.8
12/11/774
10 Nov 774
24/25 May 784
0784 May 23  21:58:34
40
177
7117
5 Chicchan
9.17.4.6.5
8/5/775
6 May 775
17/18 Nov 784
0784 Nov 17  17:23:51
41
148
7265
10 Ben
9.17.4.13.13
3/10/775
1 Oct 775
14/15 April 785
0785 Apr 13  21:35:47
42
177
7442
5 Ok
9.17.5.4.10
28/3/776
26 Mar 776
8/9 Oct 785
0785 Oct 08  06:06:06
43
177
7619
13 Manik
9.17.5.13.7
21/9/776
19 Sep 776
3/4 April 786
0786 Apr 03  13:51:28
44
177
7796
8 Kan
9.17.6.4.4
17/3/777
15 Mar 777
27/28 Sep 786
0786 Sep 27  05:36:17
45
177
7973
3 Imix
9.17.6.13.1
10/9/777
8 Sep 777
23/24 Mar 787
0787 Mar 24  06:05:01
46
177
8150
11 Etz'nab
9.17.7.3.18
6/3/778
4 Mar 778
16/17 Sep 787
0787 Sep 16  09:18:23
47
177
8327
6 Men
9.17.7.12.15
30/8/778
28 Aug 778
11/12 Mar 788
0788 Mar 12  17:41:00
48
148
8475
11 Ak'bal
9.17.8.2.3
25/1/779
23 Jan 779
6/7 Aug 788
0788 Aug 06  11:52:52
49
177
8652
6 Ahaw
9.17.8.11.0
21/7/779
19 July 779
30/31 Jan 789
0789 Jan 31  04:05:08
50
177
8829
1 Kaban
9.17.9.1.17
14/1/780
12 Jan 780
26/27 July 789
0789 Jul 27  
04:53:37
51
177 (178)
9007
10 Men
9.17.9.10.15
10/7/780
8 July 780
20/21 Jan 790
0790 Jan 20  04:01:48
52
177
9184
5  Eb
9.17.10.1.12
3/1/781
1 Jan 781
16/17 July 790
0790 Jul 16  19:49:25 
53
177
9361
13 Muluk
9.17.10.10.9
29/6/781
27 June 781
9/10 Jan 791
0791 Jan 09  09:57:36
54
177
9538
8 Kimi
9.17.11.1.6
23/12/781
21 Dec 781
5/6 July 791
0791 Jul 06  
04:35:40
55
177
9715
3 Ak'bal
9.17.11.10.3
18/6/782
16 June 782
29/30 Dec 791
0791 Dec 29  22:38:40
56
177
9892
11 Ahaw
9.17.12.1.0
12/12/782
10 Dec 782
23/24 June 792
0792 Jun 24  06:42:26
57
148
10040
3 Lamat
9.17.12.8.8
9/5/783
7 May 783
18/19 Nov 792
0792 Nov 19  03:16:47
58
177
10217
11 Chicchan
9.17.12.17.5
2/11/783
31 Oct 783
14/15 May 793
0793 May 14  19:09:27
59
177 (178)
10395
7 Ak'bal
9.17.13.8.3
28/4/784
26 April 784
8/9 Nov 793
0793 Nov 08  14:39:47
60
177
10572
2 Ahaw
9.17.13.17.0
22/10/784
20 Oct 784
4/5 May 794
0794 May 04  05:34:59
61
177
10749
10 Kaban
9.17.14.7.17
17/4/785
15 April 785
28/29 Oct 794
0794 Oct 28  18:54:46
62
177
10926
5 Ix
9.17.14.16.14
11/10/785
9 Oct 785
23/24 April 795
0795 Apr 23  21:24:56
63
177
11103
13 Chuwan
9.17.15.7.11
6/4/786
4 April 786
17/18 Oct 795
0795 Oct 17  18:17:55
64
148
11251
5 Kawak
9.17.15.14.19
1/9/786
30 Aug 786
13/14 Mar 796
0796 Mar 14  05:11:10
65
177
11428
13 Kib
9.17.16.5.16
25/2/787
23 Feb 787
6/7 Sep 796
0796 Sep 06  06:51:48
66
177
11605
8 Ben
9.17.16.14.13
21/8/787
19 Aug 787
2/3 Mar 797
0797 Mar 03  14:43:35
67
177
11782
3 Ok
9.17.17.5.10
14/2/788
12 Feb 788
26/27 Aug 797
0797 Aug 26  19:51:37
68
177 
11959
11 Manik
9.17.17.14.7
9/8/788
7 Aug 788
19/20 Feb 798
0798 Feb 20  16:57:03
69


Summary: 
The hit rate of the  GMT ('83) correlation is 31.43%.
The hit rate of Luuk Buursen's correlation is 98.57%.

So, if you can choose between the GMT correlation (31.43% right) and Luuk Buursen's correlation (98.57% right), which one would you choose?


Sources used:

Download the Dresden Codex in PDF format from FAMSI:

2 opmerkingen:

  1. What about the Katun end date in 1538 to 1539. Luuk's correlation seems to end it about ten years after 1539. montebenson@hotmail.com

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    Reacties
    1. Mike Geubel: I also have my doubts about his correlation lately, I think that Geraldine Patrick has the right correlation. I wrote an article about it some years ago in Dutch: https://www.geubel.com/2020/01/de-maya-kalender-correlatie-die-wel.html

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